The Environmental Impact of Modern Agriculture

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Alexander Ferrigno

In the shadow of Clarkson’s Farm, an awareness has been ignited among the public, illuminating the grand guignol of modern agriculture and our mercurial climate. This is a dance, a delicate balance of give and take, a captivating study in reciprocity, a tale of interisolary relationships.

Agriculture and Climate, a marriage of giants, caught in a perpetual tug-of-war. Each shapes the other, for better or worse, in a relentless cycle of influence. Yet, there’s a tragic irony in their union. Unseen to them, their actions can be as destructive as transformative. It’s a complex tableau vivant, where every move has far-reaching consequences. Simply: agriculture harms the climate and the climate harms agriculture. The harmonic balance has been disrupted, each fighting back to regain what once was, but the scale of balance tips back-and-forth, like children on a sea-saw. This is a spectacle of mutual impact that forms the crux of our narrative. It’s a tale as old as time, yet as relevant as ever in a quest for sustainability.

But the narrative doesn’t end there. The show also exposes the labyrinth of regulations that farmers must navigate, transforming seemingly mundane tasks into Herculean trials. This intricate interplay of agriculture, environment, and law is a narrative that demands our attention. We’re living in a world where sustainability isn’t just a buzzword, it’s a survival strategy. Understanding the environmental implications of our food production and the laws that govern it is more than just an intellectual exercise, it’s a necessity for our continued existence on this pale blue dot.

The Dance of Destruction and Creation

There exists an unseen irony here. Agriculture, the very act of creation, is also an act of destruction.

In the throes of our modern era, where the fields are plowed by steel and not sinew, the tendrils of agriculture, food production, and distribution weave a tale of unseen consequences.1 These endeavors, mundane yet monumental, whisper to the heavens their lament, in 2012 contributing a significant 14 percent to the great ledger of greenhouse gases.2 But the story does not end at the furrowed earth. Beyond the tilled soil, in the vast expanses where rural land use decisions are made, the impact swells further. The green giants—trees felled in the name of progress—add their voices to the chorus. Combining forces, and fast forwarding a decade (2022), they account for 13-21% of total emissions.3 A dance of human ambition and nature’s silent rebuke, each step heavy with the weight of our choices.

Each plow that cleaves the earth, each seed that breaches the soil, etches an unerasable scar upon the face of our climate. The livestock, vast herds of methane-breathing creatures, contribute their share to this silent reckoning, their gaseous offerings rising to join the atmospheric tapestry of our making; overgrazing, a relentless cycle of consumption and degradation, further rends the land, a testament to the unsustainable voracity of our agricultural practices.4 This, too, is the legacy of our cultivation, where the soil we seek to nurture is instead laid to waste. Yet, this tale of imbalance and ruin is not a one-sided narrative; the repercussions are as cyclical as the seasons, as much a product of the earth’s resilience as our own relentless advance.

The Climate

The climate, in its capricious dominion, shapes agriculture in return. As temperatures rise and weather patterns shift, farmers face an unforgiving reality: parched fields from relentless droughts, or crops drowned by torrential floods.5 The scorching heat renders the earth inhospitable, seeds failing to sprout in the sweltering embrace. The rain, once a harbinger of growth, now falls with erratic cruelty, birthing either barren droughts or overwhelming deluges. The consequences ripple outward, from diminished harvests to the inflated prices parceled for the common folk, a grim testament to scarcity.6 In the span of the last 80 years, a study has indicated a 21% decline in farming productivity due to climate change.7 This figure might not strike everyone as dire, but consider this: it’s akin to erasing about seven years of advancements in farming efficiency since the 1960s.8 To help put this into perspective, try imagining you were running a marathon and suddenly you have been forced to walk back seven miles—you’d feel the setback keenly.

This decline poses a serious threat to food security (one of the more concerning aspects). In many of the world’s poorest regions, it’s expected to reduce the availability of food, heighten malnutrition as diets become less nutritious, and disrupt food access due to increasingly severe weather events. The repercussions are stark: fewer crops, higher hunger rates, and communities more vulnerable to the whims of a changing climate. The results of such a thing could have consequences across the globe, not only restricted to the most effected regions.

The Farmers

Farmers stand at the precipice, forced to adapt or succumb to the merciless whims of nature. The gamble is stark: alter their methods or watch their livelihoods wither. The brutal economics of a poor yield drive many to shutter their barns and fall silent, the fields lying fallow, and the world hungrier for it. The stakes are harrowing, the margin for error razor-thin, a truth laid bare by the trials displayed in Clarkson’s Farm.

The impact of climate change on agriculture is a specter that looms large, its severity dictated by both the magnitude and velocity of these changes.9 Various adaptive strategies, such as crop rotation, have been employed, each a desperate bid to outmaneuver the encroaching crisis. Yet, these measures are but bandages on an infected wound, failing to address the underlying ailment. The climate, ever-responsive, reacts to our interventions with a silent, inexorable judgment, and we are left to navigate this delicate dance, ever on the brink of unraveling.

Examples

The United Kingdom

The Agri-climate statistics report, an annual revelation from the UK government, lays out the intricate relationship between farming and climate change.10 Per their report, agriculture emerged as responsible for 69% of nitrous oxide and 48% of methane emissions in 2020,11 the silent, potent specters of our time. Though the climate, ever fickle, returns the favour. The Alan Turing Institute forewarns that in fifty years, the crops that once thrived in the UK’s embrace will wither, unable to meet the demands of a changing world.12

Thankfully, the UK government, sensing the gravity, has charted a course towards sustainable farming in response to these adaptation needs. From 2021, a seven-year road-map has been crafted to equip farmers with the means to weather the coming storm (or drought).13 Central to this vision is the Environmental Land Management scheme—an initiative to foster sustainable practices, nurture nature’s resurgence, and plant new woodlands against the march of climate change.14 The plan also pledges to enhance animal health, targeting endemic diseases among cattle, pigs, and sheep, weaving resilience into the farming fabric.15 As of April 2024, there were 13,900 live Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) 2023 agreements, held by 13,400 farmers and land managers, and representing over 2 million hectares (ha) of land in England.16 The SFI, has received over 20,000 applications since its 2023 inception.17 This is higher than the uptake in the first few years of Countryside Stewardship and is on track to achieve higher uptake than the first year of Environmental Stewardship.18

Asia

In South Asia, climate change has crippled food production through water shortages, pest outbreaks, and soil degradation, resulting in significant crop yield losses and threatening food security—echoing a global pattern of agricultural distress.19 A 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organization revealed Asia as the most disaster-prone region globally, besieged by weather, climate, and water-related hazards.20 Storms and floods, responsible for over 80 percent of these disasters, caused more than 2,000 fatalities and directly impacted nine million people.21

Current food production and consumption patterns are bleeding Asia’s productive lands and water reserves dry.22 Climate change deepens the wound, threatening food security as global water supplies ebb away unevenly, while the world’s appetite for natural resources grows insatiable.23 Asia’s megadeltas, which cover just 1% of the world’s land area, but support over 500 million people, are teetering on the brink.24 Rising sea levels, frequent tropical cyclones, and pollution from agricultural chemicals and urban waste are leading to increased water salinisation and groundwater contamination.25 Studies from regions like the Bengal, Mekong, and Indus deltas reveal alarming levels of pollutants such as arsenic, bacteria, nitrates, and phosphates in both surface and groundwater, with groundwater levels in some areas projected to drop by another 2 meters by 2030.26 These environmental changes, driven by climate change and human activity, are putting the region’s water and food security at grave risk.

The UNEP 2024 report, a harbinger of grim truths, forecasts an unfortunate future if we persist on our current path until 2060.27 Yet, it hints at a sliver of salvation—an opportunity to turn towards sustainability.28 However, as the world hurtles towards an estimated population of 9.7 billion by 2050, the stakes are monumental: a 70% increase in food-calorie production is imperative to feed the swelling masses.29 More people requires more land for food production (as well as everything else), current agricultural practices means higher risks of climate events, these climate events mean less food production for the ever growing population. The hour is late, but we are not beyond redemption.

Europe

In Europe, the intricate interplay between agriculture and climate change is not left to mere chance. It is meticulously guided by a comprehensive regulatory framework. Central to this is the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP),30 designed to fortify the resilience of agriculture and forestry against climate change while supporting actions aligned with EU climate objectives. This grand vision seeks to protect nature and halt the degradation of ecosystems, as laid out in the Biodiversity Strategy for 2030.31 The CAP is a beacon of sustainable agricultural systems in the EU, ensuring that farmers can provide safe, healthy, and sustainably-produced food, earn a stable and fair income, and uphold the multitude of public goods they deliver. It aims to safeguard natural resources, enhance biodiversity, and contribute vigorously to the fight against climate change.32

In 2024, the European Commission introduced the Strategic Dialogue on the future of EU agriculture, a new forum designed to shape a collective vision for the future of the EU’s farming and food system.33 This dialogue convenes key stakeholders from the entire agri-food chain—farmers, cooperatives, agri-food businesses, rural communities, non-governmental organizations, civil society representatives, financial institutions, and academia—to forge a unified path forward.34

Despite these commendable intentions, the EU has set an extraordinarily ambitious target: reducing GHG emissions by 90% by 2040.35 This goal will test the political resolve to combat climate change and, crucially, the ability to balance these aims with the will of the people. Farmers, naturally, are not particularly pleased, mirroring sentiments across the UK. These targets demand sacrifices, with impacts rippling through all who partake in the sustenance agriculture provides. The stakes are immense, and the path forward fraught with challenges, but the vision remains steadfast.

Fertiliser Dilemma

Fertilisers have revolutionised global food production, transforming the world’s fields and bringing bounty and security. Their chemical essence coaxes the land to yield more, sparing forests and meadows from the plow. Yet, in the poorer reaches of Sub-Saharan Africa, the story diverges—too little fertiliser, meager crops, and expanding fields hungrily devouring the landscape.36

The Environmental Toll

Despite the bountiful yields lead by these fertilisers, there is a dark side, a price for this alchemical boon; overuse turns blessing to curse. Excess nutrients, intended to nourish, instead wash into rivers and lakes, becoming pollutants—two-thirds of nitrogen, half of phosphorus.37 These rogue elements wreak havoc, unbalancing ecosystems and strangling biodiversity. The soil itself turns hostile, its pH twisted, pests swarming, its organic lifeblood drained.38

The air, too, suffers. Fertiliser production and application release greenhouse gases, their specters haunting the atmosphere. Ammonia, the ubiquitous nitrogen compound, is a significant offender, its manufacture responsible for 1-2% of global carbon dioxide emissions.39 On the fields, the curse persists. Crops absorb only half the nitrogen, leaving the rest to escape into waterways or the sky as nitrous oxide, a gas 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide.40 Synthetic nitrogen fertilisers, architects of 2.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions,41 whisper of an apocalypse. Their legacy: a warmer, more volatile world.

Only 60 Harvests?

The doomsday cry of “only 60 harvests left” had quietly echoed through conference halls and headlines as a chilling prophecy that was exposed further to the masses through a passing comment on Clarkson’s Farm – where I myself first heard it. Yet, in the shadowy backrooms of academia, this claim meets skepticism. It traces its origins to a UN Food and Agriculture Organization official’s pronouncement, but the scientific foundation is as elusive as a specter.42

Our World in Data dissects this myth, revealing a complex reality. Soil erosion is indeed a relentless adversary, yet the world’s soils do not conform to a single fate. Some erode quickly, others endure, weathering the ages.43 The sweeping statement of 60 remaining harvests collapses under scrutiny, a hyperbole more fitting for a fevered dream than scientific discourse. New Scientist brands the claim as “fantasy,”44 noting the absence of consensus and the murky evidence from which it sprang. Oxford University, too, dismantles the myth, calling it “overblown” and “nonsensical,”45 a cautionary tale against the allure of apocalyptic simplicity. Thus, while the degradation of our soils is an undeniable crisis, the “60 harvests” prophecy falls apart, revealing the necessity for precise, evidence-driven dialogue in our struggle against environmental decay.

Conflicting Research

In the labyrinth of research funding, the influence of patronage can be subtle yet significant. I feel the need to mention this here because our UN representative seems to be pushing an extreme agenda, while skeptics dismiss it as a fantasy.

The truth often lies somewhere in between, elusive and complex. In regard to research, what is correct and what is misleading, following the money trail can reveal hidden biases of such papers, as those who finance studies may have vested interests. However, academia, with its codes of ethics and rigorous methodologies, generally tries its best to uphold integrity.

Yet, as it is with all things, even the most stringent guidelines can’t always shield against human error. Potential conflicts of interest must be considered when evaluating research findings. For every study asserting one conclusion, another might present the opposite. The “Climategate” incident of 2009 serves as a cautionary tale. Hackers exposed over a thousand documents and emails from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), leading critics to allege a scientific conspiracy. They claimed scientists manipulated data and suppressed dissent to support the narrative of global warming.46 However, this too should be considered with skeptic mind as eight committees investigated this “Climategate” and found no evidence of fraud or misconduct. FactCheck.org later confirmed that climate change deniers had misrepresented the emails’ contents,47 pushing their own biased agenda.

The Dire Calculus of Climate: On Agriculture’s Precipice

In the symphony of existence, agriculture stands as a principal player, a maestro conducting the harmonies of sustenance. The phantom shadow of climate change looms over this ancient art, a malevolent force orchestrating chaos through its instruments of destruction.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) delineates the grim ballet of direct and indirect costs that climate change imposes on agriculture.48 Severe weather events strike with merciless precision, while environmental malefactions such as soil degradation and water pollution insidiously erode the very foundations of agrarian stability.49

The Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics casts light on the impact of this on consumers and the economy; food security, a linchpin of societal equilibrium, teeters under the strain, while the agricultural sector grapples with the Sisyphean task of adaptation. Here, the figures and forecasts meld into a narrative of escalating stakes and desperate resilience.

Consider the case studies—each a harrowing tableau of environmental cataclysm. The 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia, a hellish conflagration that razed vast expanses. The erratic monsoon patterns in India, an unpredictable torrent sculpting new realities of scarcity and excess. These are not mere anecdotes but are underscored by the authoritative reports from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change50 and the World Bank.51 Each report is a clarion call, a testament to the rising costs exacted by a planet in distress.

Legal Implications and Regulations

In the grand tapestry of environmental strife, the law emerges as both a sword and a shield, wielded to navigate the treacherous terrain of modern agriculture. As climate change’s omnipresent specter grows ever more tangible, the clarion call for comprehensive legal frameworks becomes inescapable.

Existing Environmental Laws Regulating Modern Agriculture

Our present epoch is not devoid of regulatory mechanisms. Laws entwine themselves with agriculture seeking to temper its environmental footprint. Foremost among these is the United States’ Clean Water Act, a legislative leviathan guarding the sanctity of aquatic realms from the pernicious runoff of agricultural pursuits.52 It is an archetype of environmental vigilance, a sentinel against the effluvium of progress.

Other significant regulations include the Clean Air Act, which addresses air pollution from agricultural activities, particularly emissions from livestock and crop production.53 The Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) also plays a crucial role by regulating the use of pesticides to protect human health and the environment.54 Lastly, the Endangered Species Act safeguards critical habitats affected by agricultural expansion and practices.55

Effectiveness of Current Laws

Yet, in the face of escalating climatic onslaughts, the efficacy of these laws is increasingly subject to scrutiny. The European Union’s prognostications for agriculture in 2050 unveil a portrait of impending exigencies, where current regulations appear as brittle ramparts against the advancing tide of climate upheaval.56 The narrative is clear: what sufficed in yesteryears falters now under the burgeoning weight of our climatic disarray.

The gaps in the enforcement of existing regulations have been cited by various papers, noting that many laws lack the necessary provisions to address the indirect effects of climate change on agriculture,57 such as shifts in pest populations and increased soil salinity.58 Additionally, the inefficacy of voluntary compliance programs and the underfunding of key regulatory agencies further undermine these laws’ effectiveness.59

The Need for Reform and Stronger Regulations

A clarion consensus emerges from the cacophony of expert discourse—a clarion call for reformation, for the augmentation of our legal arsenals. Climate-smart agriculture practices, heralded as beacons of hope, demonstrate the dual virtues of resilience and mitigation.60 They are the harbingers of a necessary evolution, where laws must transcend their origins to embrace a more robust, adaptable ethos. The mandate is clear: the statutes of today must metamorphose, lest they become the relics of a bygone era, unable to shield us from the tempestuous future.

Recent legislative efforts such as the Agricultural Resilience Act in the United States aim to enhance the sector’s adaptive capacity and reduce its environmental impact through incentives for sustainable practices and increased funding for research.61 Similarly, the European Green Deal sets ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, promoting biodiversity, and ensuring the sustainability of food systems.62

Legal Outlook

The legal landscape surrounding agriculture and climate change is complex and multifaceted. Many national legal frameworks still do not include laws and measures specifically intended to tackle climate change in the agriculture sectors.63 This gap in legislation presents a significant challenge as it hinders the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices and the achievement of international climate change goals.64

Moreover, the enforcement of existing regulations is often hampered by social factors such as values, beliefs, or world views.65 These factors can be affected by access to finance, political norms and values, and culture and religious ideologies.66 A holistic approach is likely needed. One taking into account not only the physical impacts of climate change but also the social and economic dimensions.

Progress

Importantly the Paris Agreement introduced the Katowice Climate Package in 2018, expanding on its commitments. (I shall cover the Paris Agreement in detail in separate article, which will be linked here upon availability)

The Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture (KJWA) represents a significant shift in the approach to addressing climate change in the agricultural sector. By involving both the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI), the KJWA emphasizes the need for practical implementation of climate actions in agriculture.67

The KJWA’s focus on key areas such as soil carbon, water management, nutrient use, livestock management, and adaptation, including socio-economic and food security dimensions, is commendable. These areas are critical to achieving sustainable agricultural development, enhancing food security, and mitigating emissions from the agriculture sector.68

However, the effectiveness of the KJWA will largely depend on how its scope and content evolve over time. The potential for closer collaborations with other UNFCCC bodies and enhanced access to support for climate actions in agriculture is promising. Still, it will require careful planning and coordination to ensure that these collaborations are effective and that the support provided is adequate and reaches the intended beneficiaries.69

As for recent updates, the KJWA has been actively working on these issues. For instance, the UNFCCC has been conducting activities under the SBSTA and SBI on the Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture between 2017 and 2022.70 A recent event allowed Parties and stakeholders to receive an update on the KJWA, learn about achievements and next steps under the Koronivia roadmap, and share experiences with the implementation of activities related to the KJWA.71

In conclusion, while the KJWA represents a significant step forward in addressing climate change in the agricultural sector, its success will depend on the continued commitment of Parties to implement climate actions in agriculture, the evolution of its scope and content, and the effectiveness of its collaborations with other UNFCCC bodies. It will also require supportive legal and policy frameworks at the national level to translate these international commitments into action.

Given the scale and urgency of the environmental challenges posed by modern agriculture, there is a growing consensus among experts that current laws and regulations need to be reformed and strengthened. This includes the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices, which have been shown to improve farm resilience to climate change and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.72

Case Studies

Climate-Smart Agriculture

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has published several case studies on climate-smart agriculture from around the world.73 These case studies demonstrate how this approach is implemented to address challenges related to climate change and agriculture. They provide examples of the innovative roles that farmers, researchers, government officials, private sector agents, and civil society actors can play to transform food systems and help meet the Sustainable Development Goals.74 

CSA is an approach that helps guide actions to transform agri-food systems towards green and climate-resilient practices. While CSA has been praised for its three-pronged approach – sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes, adapting and building resilience to climate change, and reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, it has also faced criticism. Critics argue that what constitutes a CSA practice is context-specific, depending on local socio-economic, environmental, and climate change factors.75 This means that a practice considered climate-smart in one region might not be suitable or effective in another. Furthermore, the implementation of CSA practices at the field level can be challenging due to factors such as lack of access to finance, political norms and values, and cultural and religious ideologies.76

Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture in Africa

A study by McKinsey investigated nine specific cases that illustrated exposure to climate change extremes and proximity to physical thresholds.77 The study highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa and underscored the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate these effects.78 

Climate change is expected to make agricultural development in Africa more challenging. Weather patterns are becoming less favorable, increasing the volatility of crop and livestock yields.79 However, the impact of climate change on agriculture in Africa is not uniform across the continent. Some regions may face greater volatility in crop yields than others.80 Moreover, African farmers are generally more vulnerable to higher temperatures, fluctuations in rainfall, and variable yields than farmers in developed countries.81 This vulnerability is exacerbated by the limited ability of these farmers to secure crop insurance, adjust what they plant, irrigate their fields, or apply crop protection chemicals and fertilizers.82

Agriculture and Climate Change in the United States

A case study by the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit examined the effects of climate change on agriculture in the United States.83 The study found that climate change will exacerbate current biotic stresses on agricultural plants and animals and will have an increasing influence on agricultural productivity.84

In the United States, climate change is expected to exacerbate current biotic stresses on agricultural plants and animals.85 The rising incidence of weather extremes will have an increasingly negative impact on crop and livestock productivity. However, over the last 150 years, U.S. agriculture has exhibited a remarkable capacity to adapt to a wide diversity of growing conditions amid dynamic social and economic changes.86 This adaptability is a testament to the innovation and resilience of the agricultural sector, but it also underscores the need for continued research and development to ensure that this sector can keep pace with the rapidly changing climate.87

Opinion

Addressing the environmental impact of agriculture requires a robust legal framework that promotes sustainable practices. International agreements like the Paris Accord have set the stage for climate action, but agricultural emissions often receive less focus than industrial emissions. National policies must incentivise sustainable farming practices, such as crop rotation, agroforestry, and organic farming.

Subsidies and financial incentives should be restructured to support farmers transitioning to sustainable methods. For instance, the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has begun to integrate environmental considerations, promoting practices that enhance biodiversity and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, enforcement remains inconsistent, and the policy often favors larger agribusinesses over small-scale farmers. To enforce sustainable agricultural practices, robust legal mechanisms are essential. Environmental regulations should mandate sustainable land management practices and limit the use of harmful chemicals. Governments must hold large agribusinesses accountable for their environmental impact through stringent monitoring and penalties for non-compliance. Land use planning and zoning laws should protect critical ecosystems from agricultural encroachment. International trade agreements should include provisions for environmental protection, ensuring that agricultural imports meet sustainability standards.

Optimism

Technological advancements offer a beacon of hope in the quest for sustainable agriculture. Precision farming, which utilizes data analytics, satellite imagery, and IoT (Internet of Things) devices, allows farmers to optimize resource use and reduce waste. By applying water, fertilizers, and pesticides with pinpoint accuracy, farmers can minimize their environmental footprint. Drones and AI-powered tools help monitor crop health, predict yields, and manage pests more effectively, reducing the need for chemical interventions.

Regenerative agriculture presents a paradigm shift in farming practices, focusing on restoring and enhancing the health of the entire ecosystem. Techniques like no-till farming, cover cropping, and rotational grazing improve soil health, increase biodiversity, and sequester carbon. Regenerative practices not only mitigate climate change but also enhance farm resilience and productivity, creating a sustainable food system.

As we till the earth to feed a growing population, we must cultivate not just crops but a commitment to sustainability. The future of our planet depends on it. The plowshare, wielded with wisdom and foresight, can become a tool of regeneration and hope, sowing the seeds of a greener, more resilient world – hopefully with more than 60 harvests.

  1. H Kamyab, M SaberiKamarposhti, H Hashim, M Yusuf, ‘Carbon Dynamics in Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals: a Comprehensive Review’ Springer (2024) ↩︎
  2. ‘How Does Agriculture Contribute to Climate Change’ World Future Council (2012) ↩︎
  3. Nabuurs et al ‘Chapter 7: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)‘ in Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change p750 ↩︎
  4. Food and Agriculture Organization: Global Agriculture Towards 2050, ‘Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Modifications’ National Geographic (Updated 2023) ↩︎
  5. Bezner Kerr et al, ‘Chapter 5: Food, Fibre, and Other Ecosystem Products’ In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, IPCC (2022) Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ↩︎
  6. Bob Berwyn, ‘This Summer’s Heat Waves Could Be the Strongest Climate Signal Yet’ Inside Climate News (2018) ↩︎
  7. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea et al ‘Anthropogenic Climate Change has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth’ Nature Climate Change (2021) ↩︎
  8. ibid ↩︎
  9. ‘Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Supply’ EPA (2020) https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply ↩︎
  10. ‘Agri-Climate Report 2022’ GOV.UK [2022] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/agri-climate-report-2022/agri-climate-report-2022 ↩︎
  11. ibid ↩︎
  12. Evangeline Corcoran et al ‘Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture;
    Building Next-Generation Models to Support Resilient Agricultural Policy’ The Alan Turing Institute, https://www.turing.ac.uk/research/research-projects/impact-climate-change-agriculture ↩︎
  13. ‘Government unveils path to sustainable farming from 2021’ GOV.UK, Dep Env, Food & Rur Aff (2020) https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-unveils-path-to-sustainable-farming-from-2021 ↩︎
  14. Environmental Land Management (ELM) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/environmental-land-management-update-how-government-will-pay-for-land-based-environment-and-climate-goods-and-services/environmental-land-management-elm-update-how-government-will-pay-for-land-based-environment-and-climate-goods-and-services ↩︎
  15. ibid ↩︎
  16. Amy Cairns ‘The Sustainable Farming Incentive: Stats to Know’ GOV.UK, Dep Env, Food & Rur Aff (2024) https://defrafarming.blog.gov.uk/2024/05/03/stats-you-need-to-know-about-the-sustainable-farming-incentive/ ↩︎
  17. ibid ↩︎
  18. ibid ↩︎
  19. Naveen et al ‘Climate-Smart Agriculture in South Asia: exploring practices, determinants, and contribution to Sustainable Development Goals. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change’ (2024) 29 (4), 1–23 ↩︎
  20. ‘WMO Report: Asia Hit Hardest by Climate Change and Extreme Weather’ United Nations (2024) ↩︎
  21. ibid ↩︎
  22. Shamsudduha, Bhanja, Nowreen ‘Water Supply Sustainability and Challenges in Asian Megadeltas Under Global Change’ Water and Climate, Vol 6 (2024) https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2024.1415097 ↩︎
  23. International Resource Panel (IRP), Global Resources Outlook 2024, UNEP (2024) https://www.unep.org/resources/Global-Resource-Outlook-2024 ↩︎
  24. Shamsudduha (n 20) ↩︎
  25. ibid ↩︎
  26. ibid ↩︎
  27. IRP Report (n 23) ↩︎
  28. ibid ↩︎
  29. Wanglin Ma, Dil Rahut ‘Climate-Smart Agriculture for a Sustainable Future’ Blog of the Asian Development Bank Institute (2024) https://www.asiapathways-adbi.org/2024/06/climate-smart-agriculture-for-a-sustainable-future/ ↩︎
  30. European Commission Common Agricultural
    Policy for 2023-2027 [2022] csp-at-a-glance-eu-countries_en.pdf (europa.eu) ↩︎
  31. European Commission, Biodiversity strategy for 2030 [2020] https://environment.ec.europa.eu/strategy/biodiversity-strategy-2030_en ↩︎
  32. ibid ↩︎
  33. European Commission, Main initiatives: Strategic Dialogue on the future of EU agriculture https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/common-agricultural-policy/cap-overview/main-initiatives-strategic-dialogue-future-eu-agriculture_en ↩︎
  34. ibid ↩︎
  35. EU Recommends Ambitious 2040 Climate Target, Goes Light on Farming, Aljazeera (2024) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/6/eu-recommends-ambitious-2040-climate-target-goes-light-on-farming ↩︎
  36. Hannah Ritchie, ‘To protect the world’s wildlife we must improve crop yields — especially across Africa’ Our World In Data (2021) https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss ↩︎
  37. Hannah Ritchie, ‘Excess fertilizer use: which countries cause environmental damage by overapplying fertilizers?’ Our World In Data (2021) https://ourworldindata.org/excess-fertilizer ↩︎
  38. ibid ↩︎
  39. ‘Greening Up the Production of Ammonia — the Key Ingredient for Fertilizer’ UCLA Samueli Newsroom (2023) https://samueli.ucla.edu/greening-up-the-production-of-ammonia-the-key-ingredient-for-fertilizer/; see also Peter Aagaard et al ‘From green ammonia to lower-carbon foods’ Mckinsey (2023) https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/agriculture/our-insights/from-green-ammonia-to-lower-carbon-foods ↩︎
  40. Tian, H., Xu, R., Canadell, J.G. et al, ‘A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks’ Nature 586, 248–256 (2020) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2780-0 ↩︎
  41. Stefano Menegat et al, ‘Greenhouse gas emissions from global production and use of nitrogen synthetic fertilisers in agriculture’ Scientific Reports (2022) DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18773-w ↩︎
  42. Hannah Ritchie, ‘Do we only have 60 harvests left?’ Our World In Data (2021) https://ourworldindata.org/soil-lifespans ↩︎
  43. ibid ↩︎
  44. James Wong, ‘The idea that there are only 100 harvests left is just a fantasy’ News Scientist (2019) https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24232291-100-the-idea-that-there-are-only-100-harvests-left-is-just-a-fantasy/ ↩︎
  45. Philip Case, ‘Only 60 Years of Harvests Left’ Claim is a Myth, Says Study’ Farmers Weekly (2021) https://www.fwi.co.uk/news/only-60-years-of-harvests-left-claim-is-a-myth-says-study ↩︎
  46. ‘Climatic Research Unit email controversy’ Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy  ↩︎
  47. Jess Henig, ‘Climategate’ Factcheck (2009) https://www.factcheck.org/2009/12/climategate/  ↩︎
  48. EPA (n 9) ↩︎
  49. ‘Runoff/Nonpoint Source Pollution’ UNDRR https://www.undrr.org/understanding-disaster-risk/terminology/hips/en0006#:~:text=Nonpoint%20source%20pollution%20is%20caused,%3B%20NOAA%2C%20no%20date). ↩︎
  50. UNFCCC Reports can be found here: https://unfccc.int/reports ↩︎
  51. World Bank Reports can be found here: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange ↩︎
  52. 33 U.S.C. §1251 et seq, Clean Water Act [1972] ↩︎
  53. 42 U.S.C. §7401 et seq Clean Air Act [1970] ↩︎
  54. 7 U.S.C. §136 et seq Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act [1996] ↩︎
  55. 16 U.S.C. §1531 et seq Endangered Species Act [1973] ↩︎
  56. The European environment — state and outlook 2020, European Environment Agency (2019) https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/soer-2020 ↩︎
  57. Chang‐Gil Kim ‘The Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector:
    Implications of the Agro‐Industry for Low Carbon, Green Growth Strategy
    and Roadmap for the East Asian Region’ Korea Rural Economic Institute https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/5.%20The-Impact-of-Climate-Change-on-the-Agricultural-Sector.pdf ↩︎
  58. Denis L Corwin, ‘Climate change impacts on soil salinity in agricultural areas’ European Journal of Soil Science 72 (2) (2020) https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342147221_Climate_change_impacts_on_soil_salinity_in_agricultural_areas ↩︎
  59. Robyn Clark, James Reed, Terry Sunderland, ‘Bridging funding gaps for climate and sustainable development: Pitfalls, progress and potential of private finance’ Land Use Policy 71 (2018) 335-346 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.013 ↩︎
  60. Climate Smart Agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, https://www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture/en/ ↩︎
  61. H.R.1840, Agriculture Resilience Act of 2023, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1840 ↩︎
  62. European Commission, ‘The European Green Deal’ https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en ↩︎
  63. ‘Agriculture and climate change, Law and governance in support of climate smart agriculture and international climate change goals’ FAO United Nations (2020) https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/c1a366bc-0667-4cfa-aeeb-ead2fa93cbd6/content ↩︎
  64. ibid ↩︎
  65. ‘Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation’ US Climate Resilience Toolkit (2024) https://toolkit.climate.gov/case-studies/climate-change-and-agriculture-united-states-effects-and-adaptation-1 ↩︎
  66. ibid ↩︎
  67. ‘Koronivia joint work on agriculture’ UNFCCC https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/agriculture/KJWA; see also ‘Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture’ FAO https://www.fao.org/koronivia/en/  ↩︎
  68. ibid ↩︎
  69. ibid ↩︎
  70. ibid ↩︎
  71. ibid ↩︎
  72. EPA (n 9) ↩︎
  73. ‘Climate-smart agriculture case studies 2021’ FAO (2021) https://www.fao.org/policy-support/tools-and-publications/resources-details/en/c/1469956/ ↩︎
  74. ibid ↩︎
  75. W Ma, DB Rahut, ‘Climate-smart agriculture: adoption, impacts, and implications for sustainable development’ Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 29, 44 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-024-10139-z ↩︎
  76. ibid ↩︎
  77. Lola Woetzel et al, ‘Effects of climate change on agriculture in Africa’ Mckinsey Global Institute (2020) https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/how-will-african-farmers-adjust-to-changing-patterns-of-precipitation ↩︎
  78. ibid ↩︎
  79. Lola Woetzel et al, ‘How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns of precipitation?’ Mckinsey Global Institute (2020) https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/how-will-african-farmers-adjust-to-changing-patterns-of-precipitation  ↩︎
  80. ibid ↩︎
  81. ibid ↩︎
  82. ibid ↩︎
  83. US Climate Resilience Toolkit (n 65) ↩︎
  84. ibid ↩︎
  85. ibid ↩︎
  86. ibid ↩︎
  87. ibid ↩︎
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